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Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Printable Version

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Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 31-10-2018 10:21 AM

OK - the following are predictions based on goal expectancy/poisson distribution (with a slight tweak).

This should be viewed as a trial - so we'll see how it goes.

I'm trying to post an image of a spreadsheet. It should be available as an attachment.

Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen.
Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 04-11-2018 08:38 PM

A small profit of £8.20 to £5 stakes on the Home\Away selections.
Could maybe have included the Draw selections but I don't know how reliable they are - will keep an eye on these.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 07-11-2018 10:50 AM

I will (speculatively) add in a Draw bet.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 11-11-2018 10:42 AM

A loss of 13.89 - better luck next time?


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 21-11-2018 10:45 AM

We shall see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 26-11-2018 11:23 AM

(21-11-2018 10:45 AM)Kino Wrote:  We shall see...
Alas, a loss of about £11


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 26-11-2018 01:31 PM

Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 29-11-2018 08:59 AM

(26-11-2018 01:31 PM)Kino Wrote:  Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.

Not too bad - a profit of £13.74


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 29-11-2018 09:52 AM

So, let's see what we can do...

Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen.
Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 30-11-2018 10:26 AM

Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for

Birmingham v Preston
Bolton v Wigan


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 03-12-2018 09:41 AM

(30-11-2018 10:26 AM)Kino Wrote:  Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for

Birmingham v Preston
Bolton v Wigan

Result: +£16.37


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 04-12-2018 12:12 PM

Let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 07-12-2018 10:22 AM

Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 08-12-2018 09:03 PM

(07-12-2018 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote:  Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.
Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80%


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 09-12-2018 02:03 PM

(08-12-2018 09:03 PM)Kino Wrote:  Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80%

So let's see how we get on...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 18-12-2018 10:02 AM

From now on I shall just post the raw data.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 20-12-2018 10:46 AM

Ok, I've been taking a closer look at the spreadsheet predictions and I have to say Home/Away results are rather poor.
But, if I extract the Draw predictions the results so far are quite promising - just under 50% correct - which given the odds available should be worth considering (see attached).

Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 23-12-2018 10:17 AM

(20-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote:  Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see...

Only highlighting possible Draw result.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 27-12-2018 08:41 AM

(23-12-2018 10:17 AM)Kino Wrote:  Only highlighting possible Draw result.

and that went ok... (£10 stakes)


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 28-12-2018 08:43 AM

(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote:  and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

So let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 29-12-2018 08:27 PM

(28-12-2018 08:43 AM)Kino Wrote:  
(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote:  and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

So let's see...

and it did!


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 30-12-2018 10:46 AM

So let's see how we do in 2019...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 02-01-2019 07:14 AM

(30-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote:  So let's see how we do in 2019...

Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40%


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 06-01-2019 01:22 PM

(02-01-2019 07:14 AM)Kino Wrote:  Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40%

Fewer selections for the next games.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 13-01-2019 10:33 AM

(06-01-2019 01:22 PM)Kino Wrote:  Fewer selections for the next games.

But not a bad result


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 13-01-2019 02:52 PM

(13-01-2019 10:33 AM)Kino Wrote:  But not a bad result

So let's see if we can keep it up...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 20-01-2019 02:18 PM

(13-01-2019 02:52 PM)Kino Wrote:  So let's see if we can keep it up...

Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38%


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 21-01-2019 10:22 AM

(20-01-2019 02:18 PM)Kino Wrote:  Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38%
So let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 26-01-2019 06:43 PM

(21-01-2019 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote:  So let's see...
Not bad - a profit on the day.

After today I won't be posting an attachment, just the draw selections.

Next Draw prediction:
29/01/19 Bolton v Reading


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 30-01-2019 10:57 AM

(26-01-2019 06:43 PM)Kino Wrote:  Next Draw prediction:
29/01/19 Bolton v Reading
£23 to £10 stakes.

01/02/19 Preston v Derby
02/02/19 Birmingham v Nott'm Forest
02/02/19 Bristol City v Swansea
02/02/19 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds
02/02/19 Millwall v Rotherham
02/02/19 Reading v Aston Villa
02/02/19 West Brom v Middlesbrough


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 02-02-2019 06:44 PM

(30-01-2019 10:57 AM)Kino Wrote:  +£37.91 to £10 stakes

01/02/19 Preston v Derby +24.50
02/02/19 Birmingham v Nott'm Forest -10
02/02/19 Bristol City v Swansea -10
02/02/19 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds -10
02/02/19 Millwall v Rotherham +27.44
02/02/19 Reading v Aston Villa +25.97
02/02/19 West Brom v Middlesbrough -10



RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 05-02-2019 08:06 AM

Next Draw selections:

08/02/19 Aston Villa v Sheffield Utd
09/02/19 Blackburn v Bristol City
09/02/19 Bolton v Preston
09/02/19 Nott'm Forest v Brentford
09/02/19 QPR v Birmingham
09/02/19 Sheffield Weds v Reading
09/02/19 Swansea v Millwall


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 09-02-2019 06:33 PM

08/02/19 Aston Villa Sheffield Utd £23.52
09/02/19 Blackburn Bristol City -£10.00
09/02/19 Bolton Preston -£10.00
09/02/19 Nott'm Forest Brentford -£10.00
09/02/19 QPR Birmingham -£10.00
09/02/19 Sheffield Weds Reading £23.52
09/02/19 Swansea Millwall -£10.00

a small loss on the day of -£2.96


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 10-02-2019 03:42 PM

Next Draw predictions:

12/02/19 Birmingham v Bolton
12/02/19 Bristol City v QPR
13/02/19 Brentford v Aston Villa
13/02/19 Ipswich v Derby
13/02/19 Leeds v Swansea
13/02/19 Preston v Norwich
13/02/19 Sheffield Utd v Middlesbrough
13/02/19 Reading v Blackburn


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 14-02-2019 09:40 AM

Birmingham Bolton -£10.00
Bristol City QPR -£10.00
Brentford Aston Villa -£10.00
Ipswich Derby £22.54
Leeds Swansea -£10.00
Preston Norwich -£10.00
Sheffield Utd Middlesbrough -£10.00
Reading Blackburn -£10.00

A LOSS OF £47.46


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 14-02-2019 02:05 PM

So let's see if we can do better...

16/02/19 Rotherham v Sheffield Weds
16/02/19 Aston Villa v West Brom
16/02/19 Ipswich v Stoke
16/02/19 Preston v Nott'm Forest
17/02/19 Blackburn v Middlesbrough


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 17-02-2019 04:15 PM

Rotherham v Sheffield Weds £22.54
Aston Villa v West Brom -£10.00
Ipswich v Stoke £23.03
Preston v Nott'm Forest £23.52
Blackburn v Middlesbrough -£10.00

A profit of £49.09

Nothing further until 23/2


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 20-02-2019 12:38 PM

Next Draw selections:

23/02/19 Birmingham v Blackburn
23/02/19 Brentford v Hull
23/02/19 Leeds v Bolton
23/02/19 Millwall v Preston
23/02/19 Sheffield Weds v Swansea


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 24-02-2019 10:00 AM

Birmingham Blackburn £22.54
Brentford Hull -£10.00
Leeds Bolton -£10.00
Millwall Preston -£10.00
Sheffield Weds Swansea -£10.00

A loss of £17.46


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 24-02-2019 10:17 AM

25/02/19 Nott'm Forest v Derby

Nothing for 26/2


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 28-02-2019 10:00 AM

A £10 loss.

Next Draw selections:

02/03/19 Ipswich v Reading
02/03/19 Stoke v Nott'm Forest
02/03/19 Wigan v Middlesbrough


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 02-03-2019 06:50 PM

IpswichV V Reading -£10.00
Stoke V Nott'm Forest -£10.00
Wigan V Middlesbrough £21.07

A small profit of £1.07

Next draw selection:
04/03/19 Sheffield Weds v Sheffield Utd

Nothing further until 8th.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 06-03-2019 08:53 AM

Sheffield Weds v Sheffield Utd £23.52
-------------------------------------

Next Draw selections:

09/03/19 Blackburn v Preston
09/03/19 Bolton v Millwall
09/03/19 Nott'm v Forest Hull
09/03/19 Reading v Wigan
10/03/19 Birmingham v Aston Villa


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 10-03-2019 03:28 PM

A loss of £50 - must do better...

12/03/19 Blackburn v Wigan
12/03/19 Bolton v Sheffield Weds
12/03/19 Reading v Leeds
13/03/19 Birmingham v Millwall
13/03/19 Nott'm Forest v Aston Villa


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 14-03-2019 10:18 AM

A loss of £50 - must do even better!

16/03/19 Leeds v Sheffield Utd
16/03/19 Aston Villa v Middlesbrough
16/03/19 Ipswich v Nott'm Forest
16/03/19 Preston v Birmingham
16/03/19 Sheffield Weds v Blackburn
16/03/19 Stoke v Reading
16/03/19 Wigan v Bolton


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 16-03-2019 06:30 PM

Leeds V Sheffield Utd -£10.00
Aston Villa V Middlesbrough -£10.00
Ipswich V Nott'm Forest £22.05
Preston V Birmingham -£10.00
Sheffield V Weds Blackburn -£10.00
Stoke V Reading £24.50
Wigan V Bolton -£10.00

A small loss of £3.45


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 22-03-2019 11:34 AM

Draw selections:

30/03/19 Ipswich v Hull
30/03/19 Leeds v Millwall
30/03/19 Nott'm Forest v Swansea
30/03/19 Reading v Preston
30/03/19 Sheffield Utd v Bristol City
30/03/19 Wigan v Brentford
30/03/19 Middlesbrough v Norwich


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 31-03-2019 10:23 AM

Not so good...

Next selection

02/04/19 Swansea v Brentford


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 03-04-2019 10:42 AM

Next Draw selections:
06/04/19 Birmingham v Leeds
06/04/19 Bolton v Ipswich
06/04/19 Bristol v City Wigan
06/04/19 Preston v Sheffield Utd
06/04/19 Rotherham v Nott'm Forest
06/04/19 Sheffield Weds v Aston Villa
06/04/19 Swansea v Middlesbrough


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 07-04-2019 03:35 PM

Draw selections:

09/04/19 Blackburn v Derby
09/04/19 Preston v Leeds
09/04/19 Sheffield Weds v Nott'm Forest
10/04/19 Millwall v QPR


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 09-04-2019 10:38 AM

For a change I've posted the spreadsheet predictions fro the most likely result.
You can interpret this as HDA or actual score as you wish.

10/04/19 Birmingham V Sheffield Utd 0 - 1
10/04/19 Brentford V Ipswich 2 - 0
10/04/19 Hull V Wigan 1 - 0
10/04/19 Millwall V QPR 0 - 0
10/04/19 Norwich V Reading 2 - 1
10/04/19 Rotherham V Aston Villa 0 - 1


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 11-04-2019 09:25 AM

Quote:Birmingham V Sheffield Utd 0 - 1
Brentford V Ipswich 2 - 0
Hull V Wigan 1 - 0 H
Millwall V QPR 0 - 0
Norwich V Reading 2 - 1
Rotherham V Aston Villa 0 - 1 A

Most likely scores:

13/04/19 Aston Villa v Bristol City 2 - 0
13/04/19 Derby v Bolton 2 - 0
13/04/19 Ipswich v Birmingham 1 - 1
13/04/19 Middlesbrough Hull 1 - 0
13/04/19 Nott'm v Forest Blackburn 1 - 1
13/04/19 QPR v Swansea 1 - 0
13/04/19 Reading v Brentford 1 - 1
13/04/19 Sheffield Utd v Millwall 1 - 0
13/04/19 Stoke v Rotherham 0 - 0
13/04/19 West Brom v Preston 3 - 1
13/04/19 Leeds v Sheffield Weds 1 - 0
14/04/19 Wigan v Norwich 0 - 1


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 14-04-2019 02:48 PM

Quote:Aston Villa v Bristol City 2 - 0 H
Derby v Bolton 2 - 0H
Ipswich v Birmingham 1 - 1
Middlesbrough Hull 1 - 0

Nott'm v Forest Blackburn 1 - 1
QPR v Swansea 1 - 0H
Reading v Brentford 1 - 1
Sheffield Utd v Millwall 1 - 0
Stoke v Rotherham 0 - 0D
West Brom v Preston 3 - 1H
Leeds v Sheffield Weds 1 - 0

Wigan v Norwich 0 - 1

19/04/19 Bristol v Reading 1 - 1
19/04/19 Sheffield Utd v Nott'm Forest 1 - 0
19/04/19 Millwall v Brentford 1 - 1
19/04/19 Birmingham v Derby 0 - 1
19/04/19 Bolton v Aston Villa 0 - 1
19/04/19 Leeds v Wigan 1 - 0
19/04/19 Middlesbrough v Stoke 1 - 0
19/04/19 Preston v Ipswich 1 - 0
19/04/19 QPR v Blackburn 1 - 1
19/04/19 Swansea v Rotherham 2 - 0
19/04/19 West Brom v Hull 3 - 1
19/04/19 Norwich v Sheffield Weds 2 - 0


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 20-04-2019 09:07 AM

Quote:Bristol v Reading 1 - 1
Sheffield Utd v Nott'm Forest 1 - 0
Millwall v Brentford 1 - 1
Birmingham v Derby 0 - 1
Bolton v Aston Villa 0 - 1
Leeds v Wigan 1 - 0
Middlesbrough v Stoke 1 - 0
Preston v Ipswich 1 - 0
QPR v Blackburn 1 - 1
Swansea v Rotherham 2 - 0
West Brom v Hull 3 - 1
Norwich v Sheffield Weds 2 - 0

22/04/19 Aston Villa v Millwall 2 - 0
22/04/19 Blackburn v Bolton 1 - 0
22/04/19 Derby v QPR 2 - 0
22/04/19 Hull v Sheffield Utd 1 - 1
22/04/19 Ipswich v Swansea 1 - 0
22/04/19 Nott'm Forest v Middlesbrough 1 - 1
22/04/19 Reading v West Brom 1 - 1
22/04/19 Rotherham v Birmingham 1 - 1
22/04/19 Sheffield Weds v Bristol City 1 - 0
22/04/19 Stoke v Norwich 0 - 1
22/04/19 Wigan v Preston 0 - 1
22/04/19 Brentford v Leeds 2 - 1


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 23-04-2019 10:33 AM

Quote:Aston Villa v Millwall 2 - 0H
Blackburn v Bolton 1 - 0H
Derby v QPR 2 - 0
Hull v Sheffield Utd 1 - 1
Ipswich v Swansea 1 - 0
Nott'm Forest v Middlesbrough 1 - 1
Reading v West Brom 1 - 1 D
Rotherham v Birmingham 1 - 1
Sheffield Weds v Bristol City 1 - 0H
Stoke v Norwich 0 - 1
Wigan v Preston 0 - 1
Brentford v Leeds 2 - 1H

27/04/19 Millwall v Stoke 0 - 0
27/04/19 Birmingham v Wigan 1 - 0
27/04/19 Bolton v Brentford 1 - 1
27/04/19 Middlesbrough v Reading 1 - 0
27/04/19 Preston v Sheffield Weds 1 - 0
27/04/19 QPR v Nott'm Forest 1 - 1
27/04/19 Swansea v Hull 2 - 1
27/04/19 West Brom v Rotherham 4 - 0
27/04/19 Sheffield Utd v Ipswich 1 - 0
27/04/19 Norwich v Blackburn 2 - 1
28/04/19 Leeds v Aston Villa 0 - 1


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 28-04-2019 03:33 PM

Quote:Millwall v Stoke 0 - 0
Birmingham v Wigan 1 - 0
Bolton v Brentford 1 - 1
Middlesbrough v Reading 1 - 0 H
Preston v Sheffield Weds 1 - 0
QPR v Nott'm Forest 1 - 1
Swansea v Hull 2 - 1
West Brom v Rotherham 4 - 0 H
Sheffield Utd v Ipswich 1 - 0 H
Norwich v Blackburn 2 - 1
Leeds v Aston Villa 0 - 1

30/04/19 Millwall V Bristol City 0 - 0
01/05/19 Swansea V Derby 2 - 1


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 02-05-2019 08:18 AM

Quote:Millwall V Bristol City 0 - 0
Swansea V Derby 2 - 1

05/05/19 Aston Villa V VNorwich 2 - 1
05/05/19 Blackburn V Swansea 1 - 0
05/05/19 Brentford V Preston 2 - 1
05/05/19 Derby V West Brom 1 - 1
05/05/19 Hull V Bristol City 1 - 0
05/05/19 Ipswich V Leeds 1 - 1
05/05/19 Nott'm Forest V Bolton 1 - 0
05/05/19 Reading V Birmingham 1 - 1
05/05/19 Rotherham V Middlesbrough 0 - 1
05/05/19 Sheffield Weds V QPR 1 - 0
05/05/19 Stoke V Sheffield Utd 0 - 1
05/05/19 Wigan V Millwall 0 - 0


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 05-05-2019 03:14 PM

Quote:Aston Villa V VNorwich 2 - 1
Blackburn V Swansea 1 - 0
Brentford V Preston 2 - 1
Derby V West Brom 1 - 1
Hull V Bristol City 1 - 0
Ipswich V Leeds 1 - 1
Nott'm Forest V Bolton 1 - 0
Reading V Birmingham 1 - 1 D
Rotherham V Middlesbrough 0 - 1 A
Sheffield Weds V QPR 1 - 0
Stoke V Sheffield Utd 0 - 1
Wigan V Millwall 0 - 0

11/05/19 Aston Villa v West Brom 2 - 1
11/05/19 Derby v Leeds 2 - 1


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 12-05-2019 09:06 AM

Quote:Aston Villa v West Brom 2 - 1
Derby v Leeds 2 - 1

14/05/19 West Brom v Aston Villa 2 - 1
15/05/19 Leeds v Derby 1 - 1