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Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Printable Version

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Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 31-10-2018 10:21 AM

OK - the following are predictions based on goal expectancy/poisson distribution (with a slight tweak).

This should be viewed as a trial - so we'll see how it goes.

I'm trying to post an image of a spreadsheet. It should be available as an attachment.

Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen.
Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 04-11-2018 08:38 PM

A small profit of £8.20 to £5 stakes on the Home\Away selections.
Could maybe have included the Draw selections but I don't know how reliable they are - will keep an eye on these.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 07-11-2018 10:50 AM

I will (speculatively) add in a Draw bet.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 11-11-2018 10:42 AM

A loss of 13.89 - better luck next time?


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 21-11-2018 10:45 AM

We shall see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 26-11-2018 11:23 AM

(21-11-2018 10:45 AM)Kino Wrote:  We shall see...
Alas, a loss of about £11


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 26-11-2018 01:31 PM

Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 29-11-2018 08:59 AM

(26-11-2018 01:31 PM)Kino Wrote:  Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.

Not too bad - a profit of £13.74


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 29-11-2018 09:52 AM

So, let's see what we can do...

Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen.
Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 30-11-2018 10:26 AM

Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for

Birmingham v Preston
Bolton v Wigan


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 03-12-2018 09:41 AM

(30-11-2018 10:26 AM)Kino Wrote:  Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for

Birmingham v Preston
Bolton v Wigan

Result: +£16.37


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 04-12-2018 12:12 PM

Let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 07-12-2018 10:22 AM

Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 08-12-2018 09:03 PM

(07-12-2018 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote:  Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.
Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80%


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 09-12-2018 02:03 PM

(08-12-2018 09:03 PM)Kino Wrote:  Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80%

So let's see how we get on...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 18-12-2018 10:02 AM

From now on I shall just post the raw data.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 20-12-2018 10:46 AM

Ok, I've been taking a closer look at the spreadsheet predictions and I have to say Home/Away results are rather poor.
But, if I extract the Draw predictions the results so far are quite promising - just under 50% correct - which given the odds available should be worth considering (see attached).

Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 23-12-2018 10:17 AM

(20-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote:  Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see...

Only highlighting possible Draw result.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 27-12-2018 08:41 AM

(23-12-2018 10:17 AM)Kino Wrote:  Only highlighting possible Draw result.

and that went ok... (£10 stakes)


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 28-12-2018 08:43 AM

(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote:  and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

So let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 29-12-2018 08:27 PM

(28-12-2018 08:43 AM)Kino Wrote:  
(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote:  and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

So let's see...

and it did!


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 30-12-2018 10:46 AM

So let's see how we do in 2019...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 02-01-2019 07:14 AM

(30-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote:  So let's see how we do in 2019...

Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40%


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 06-01-2019 01:22 PM

(02-01-2019 07:14 AM)Kino Wrote:  Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40%

Fewer selections for the next games.


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 13-01-2019 10:33 AM

(06-01-2019 01:22 PM)Kino Wrote:  Fewer selections for the next games.

But not a bad result


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 13-01-2019 02:52 PM

(13-01-2019 10:33 AM)Kino Wrote:  But not a bad result

So let's see if we can keep it up...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 20-01-2019 02:18 PM

(13-01-2019 02:52 PM)Kino Wrote:  So let's see if we can keep it up...

Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38%


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 21-01-2019 10:22 AM

(20-01-2019 02:18 PM)Kino Wrote:  Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38%
So let's see...


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 26-01-2019 06:43 PM

(21-01-2019 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote:  So let's see...
Not bad - a profit on the day.

After today I won't be posting an attachment, just the draw selections.

Next Draw prediction:
29/01/19 Bolton v Reading


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 30-01-2019 10:57 AM

(26-01-2019 06:43 PM)Kino Wrote:  Next Draw prediction:
29/01/19 Bolton v Reading
£23 to £10 stakes.

01/02/19 Preston v Derby
02/02/19 Birmingham v Nott'm Forest
02/02/19 Bristol City v Swansea
02/02/19 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds
02/02/19 Millwall v Rotherham
02/02/19 Reading v Aston Villa
02/02/19 West Brom v Middlesbrough


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 02-02-2019 06:44 PM

(30-01-2019 10:57 AM)Kino Wrote:  +£37.91 to £10 stakes

01/02/19 Preston v Derby +24.50
02/02/19 Birmingham v Nott'm Forest -10
02/02/19 Bristol City v Swansea -10
02/02/19 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds -10
02/02/19 Millwall v Rotherham +27.44
02/02/19 Reading v Aston Villa +25.97
02/02/19 West Brom v Middlesbrough -10



RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 05-02-2019 08:06 AM

Next Draw selections:

08/02/19 Aston Villa v Sheffield Utd
09/02/19 Blackburn v Bristol City
09/02/19 Bolton v Preston
09/02/19 Nott'm Forest v Brentford
09/02/19 QPR v Birmingham
09/02/19 Sheffield Weds v Reading
09/02/19 Swansea v Millwall


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 09-02-2019 06:33 PM

08/02/19 Aston Villa Sheffield Utd £23.52
09/02/19 Blackburn Bristol City -£10.00
09/02/19 Bolton Preston -£10.00
09/02/19 Nott'm Forest Brentford -£10.00
09/02/19 QPR Birmingham -£10.00
09/02/19 Sheffield Weds Reading £23.52
09/02/19 Swansea Millwall -£10.00

a small loss on the day of -£2.96


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 10-02-2019 03:42 PM

Next Draw predictions:

12/02/19 Birmingham v Bolton
12/02/19 Bristol City v QPR
13/02/19 Brentford v Aston Villa
13/02/19 Ipswich v Derby
13/02/19 Leeds v Swansea
13/02/19 Preston v Norwich
13/02/19 Sheffield Utd v Middlesbrough
13/02/19 Reading v Blackburn


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 14-02-2019 09:40 AM

Birmingham Bolton -£10.00
Bristol City QPR -£10.00
Brentford Aston Villa -£10.00
Ipswich Derby £22.54
Leeds Swansea -£10.00
Preston Norwich -£10.00
Sheffield Utd Middlesbrough -£10.00
Reading Blackburn -£10.00

A LOSS OF £47.46


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 14-02-2019 02:05 PM

So let's see if we can do better...

16/02/19 Rotherham v Sheffield Weds
16/02/19 Aston Villa v West Brom
16/02/19 Ipswich v Stoke
16/02/19 Preston v Nott'm Forest
17/02/19 Blackburn v Middlesbrough


RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19 - Kino - 17-02-2019 04:15 PM

Rotherham v Sheffield Weds £22.54
Aston Villa v West Brom -£10.00
Ipswich v Stoke £23.03
Preston v Nott'm Forest £23.52
Blackburn v Middlesbrough -£10.00

A profit of £49.09

Nothing further until 23/2